Every Friday, we compare the Friday PM London gold fix with the Monday AM fix, and see how well the experts in the Kitco and Bloomberg gold surveys did.
This week saw gold trading in an extremely tight range, with a solid floor around $1,555 and a resistance level at $1,585 that the yellow metal just could not break. The Monday AM London fix on March 4 was $1,578.00, and the Friday March 8 PM fix was $1,581.75, a difference of a mere $3.75. That’s about as unchanged as you will ever likely see!
Last week’s Kitco gold survey had a slight plurality for higher prices, with 13 predicting prices up, 8 down, and 8 sideways. Last week’s Bloomberg survey was split evenly between bulls and bears, 15 to 14, with only 3 seeing choppy action.
Let’s see how gold’s performance this week, especially late-week resilience against a positive payroll report and surging dollar, influenced the outlook of this Friday’s respondents. Each survey asks futures traders, technical analysts, bullion wholesellers, and investment bankers for their prediction for gold in the week ahead.
Kitco had 25 responses to today’s survey. Compared to last week, the percentage of bulls has dropped by half (13 down to 6) to 24% of total responses, while those seeing continued tight trading (10 compared to 8) or lower prices (9 compared to 8) grew to 40% and 36%, respectively.
32 experts responded to Bloomberg’s March 8 gold survey, the same number as last week. This time, we see a big surge in the number of bulls, from 15 last week to 23 this week. This comes from two thirds of last week’s bears changing their stance to bullish, perhaps convinced by Friday’s performance of gold against very strong headwinds. The number of people expecting continued tight trading increased by one to 4.
Major bearish factors for gold next week will be the Dow hitting all-time records this week; signs of improvement in the U.S. economy; the fact that the EU didn’t blow up over the deadlocked Italian election; and gold still unable to break the $1,585 resistance level.
Major bullish factors for gold is physical gold sales in Asia as well as good coin sales in the West; the establishment of a solid floor on gold for two weeks now at the $1,550 range; and continued assurances in the face of improving economic conditions that quantitative easing is not going away soon, bringing future inflation concerns to mind.