Every Friday, we compare the Friday PM London gold fix with the Monday AM fix, and see how well the experts in the Kitco and Bloomberg gold surveys did. Both sources poll a collection of bullion dealers, market analysts, money market managers, investment bankers and hedge fund managers every Friday for their forecast for the the week ahead.
This week saw gold fight off a very strong dollar and Wall St. hitting records daily, without sustaining any major damage. In fact, gold closed slightly up for the week, after apparently building a new level of support on top of the $1,585/oz line, which was the previous line of resistance.
Kitco has 25 respondents, with a solid 68% majority expecting gold to break the psychological $1,600/oz barrier. Six experts (24%) expect gold to resume its range-bound behavior for the next week at its new level, while only two respondents think gold will fall.
Bloomberg received 34 replies to their survey today, with half thinking gold will build on recent strength, 20% see sideways action next week, and ten respondents (30%) see a retrenchment.
Major bearish factors for gold next week will be the strength of the U.S. dollar, the expectation that the stock rally isn’t finished, and better than expected housing and jobs data.
Major bullish factors for gold will be its observed strength in what should have been extremely unfavorable conditions, the sustained break-through of a tough level of resistance at $1,585/oz, and the jump in the Consumer Price Index reminding people that inflation lurks around the corner.
Factors leading to uncertainty over future gold moves is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting next Wednesday, and the habit of gold getting stuck in very narrow ranges after making a move up or down.