Gold eked out a second positive week today, but was down 5% for the month. Conflicting economic indicators and paranoia over when the Fed will turn off the money spigot whipsawed all sectors of the market: equities, currencies and commodities.
So, what do the experts prognosticate in these uncertain times? Let’s check in with Kitco and Bloomberg, and see what their weekly survey of traders, investment bankers, bullion dealers, and analysts think.
Kitco had 27 respondents to their survey. Of those, a solid majority (17) saw prices continuing the rise next week, while only four forecast a drop in prices. Six respondents considered the market too volatile to call.
Bloomberg had 33 respondents to their survey, with the bulls and bears pretty evenly matched (15 to 13). Five experts predict trading in a narrow range, or consider the market too unsettled to call.
Looking ahead to next week:
Major bullish factors:
- Many believe that a double bottom has been formed, and gold is starting a bullish move with Thursday’s break above $1,400 an ounce.
- Outflows have stopped from gold ETFs, with the largest, GLD, actually posting a small inflow on Thursday.
- There is less worry about the Fed tapering or stopping QE with the recent employment numbers.
Major bearish factors:
- There has been an 11% drop in open contracts in the paper market, hinting perhaps there aren’t as many shorts vulnerable to a further uptick in gold prices as some think.
- The rally above $1,400 did not attract buyers, and the $1,425 level was not approached.
- Physical buying in Asia is tapering off.
Those experts on the fence say that volatility is just too high to be able to call a trend, as global stock markets and currencies freak out one way or the other on every bit of economic news, in the fear that the Fed is going to stop pouring money into the system.