Gold Price Falls on Brexit Optimism

June 20th, 2016 by

rising marketGold prices are down more than 1% in Monday morning trading, as the world’s stock markets fly on news that the “Remain” side is ahead in the latest Brexit polls. The British stock market is posting gains of more than 3%, while the pound sterling is recording its best one-day gain since 2008.

The optimism isn’t confined to the UK. Stocks in Asia posted big gains overnight on the Brexit poll results, and the good times rolled through Europe and into the Wall St. open. The Dow and S&P 500 have already wiped out last week’s losses.

Gold is holding on to support at $1,280 this morning. a $17 drop in spot prices. If this level fails, $1,275 should provide the next support. First resistance is $1,284, followed by $1,288.

A stronger pound and yen have pushed the dollar noticeably lower, over 0.6% down to near 93.50 on the DXY dollar index.

Oil prices are sharply higher today, due to the risk-on appetite around the globe. News that Canadian oil sands operations are beginning to resume has put a damper on prices. West Texas Intermediate contracts are establishing a pattern just above and below the $50 mark.

Should They Stay or Should They Go?

question-mark-guyA Survation poll over the weekend gave the “Remain” side of the Brexit vote a 45% to 42% lead. This contrasts with their poll from last Monday putting “Leave” ahead by seven percent, 46% to 39%. (The Mirror has a poll tracker of past and present Brexit polls.) The assassination of Member of Parliament Jo Cox has pulled the rug from under the “Leave” camp. ComRes reported that before the murder, 45% of respondents said they would be “delighted” if the UK left the EU. After MP Cox’s murder, that number had dropped to 38%, and the number who would be “delighted” if Britain stayed in the EU jumped by nine points.

99% of the breathless coverage of these polls ignore that more than 10% of Britons surveyed are still undecided, 4 days before the referendum.

Friday’s Markets

Rock beat paper in the gold markets Friday. August gold futures settled down $3.60 to $1,294.80 an ounce, while spot gold more than erased Thursday’s $13.50 loss, logging a big $20.10 gain to close at $1,298.10.  Gold futures snapped a 7-day win streak, but still gained 1.5% on the week. This makes three weeks in a row that gold futures have recorded gains. Spot gold touched the magic $1,300 mark for just a second, shortly before the close.

A rally in both the British pound and oil prices helped stocks regain losses, as both sides of the Brexit refrained from campaigning for a second day after the assassination of MP Joe Cox. Wall St. didn’t participate in the rally, as a Friday spent in negative territory cemented weekly losses. The Dow fell 1.1% for the week, the S&P 500 lost 1.2% for the week, and the Nasdaq closed with a weekly loss of 1.9%.

The dollar started the day underwater, and sank deeper into the close in volatile action. Speculators trimmed bets on the dollar by more than $8 billion, according to the CFTC.

 

The opinions and forecasts herein are provided solely for informational purposes, and should not be used or construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any product

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